Pokémon Trading Card Game: what the interest curve says now

The Fad Index for the Pokémon Trading Card Game is in the Holding stage. Interest peaked in November 2024 at 46,848 views. The latest reading, for September 2026, is 29,706. That is 37% below the peak. Over the most recent 90 days the index changed by -3%. Four numbers, one shape: a rise, a crest, and a long flat stretch that has not yet turned sharply down.

What the curve does not tell a buyer matters just as much. It counts interest in the category, not sales, prices, print runs, or supply. It cannot say whether sealed product or singles are moving, whether a particular card is scarce, or whether the people looking are buying or only browsing. A -3% move over three months is small enough to read as flat rather than as a trend. And it is one number for the whole game, so it will always hide the difference between a shop's own shelves and the wider hobby.

How a shop should read a holding stage

Holding means the category is no longer expanding at its earlier rate and is not collapsing either. The index sits at roughly 63% of its peak level, which is a lot of retained attention. For ordering, that argues against both panic and nostalgia. Do not stock to the November 2024 peak because the curve once reached it, and do not cut Pokémon to a token shelf because the headline number is down 37%.

Use recent months, not the peak, as the baseline. The 90-day change of -3% says demand has been steady through the latest quarter. Set reorder points from your own sell-through over that window, and treat the index as a check on the direction of that sell-through rather than a substitute for it.

Split the category when you review it. Sealed product, singles, and accessories behave differently, and one index reading cannot rank them. Keep depth where your sales are repeatable, and keep speculative single-card buys shallow. If the 90-day figure starts moving well below zero while your own sales hold, that gap is worth investigating before you change an order.

Does the 37% drop from peak mean the hobby is shrinking?

No. The stage is Holding, and the figure measures distance from a peak, not the direction of travel. The last 90 days moved -3%.

Should I buy deeper because interest peaked before?

No. A past peak is not a forecast. Order against your own recent sell-through.

Can the index tell me which cards or sets to stock?

No. It is one reading for the whole category and does not break out sets, cards, or prices.